Last week's investigation and report on 50 million tons of “black oil” “rush current” caused great concern in the industry. A senior industry official further disclosed to reporters that due to the large amount of "overdrawn" gasoline and diesel resources in the country before the Olympics, a total of about 1.8 million tons, it is expected that this part of the resources will take more than two months to gradually digest. Under such circumstances, the weak situation of the refined oil wholesale market is difficult to change in the short term.

In last week's investigation, this newspaper once judged that the hoarding of oil resources in the domestic market was not only a factor that exacerbated the "oil shortage", but also the source of the stockholders' recent exposure to inventory risks. And the reason why this scene will appear is partly the result of unclear expectations.

In fact, the gambling escalation that occurred before the Olympic Games had recently brought serious consequences. According to data provided by the Oriental Oil and Gas Network, during the period from June to August this year, there was an abnormal increase in domestic gasoline and diesel consumption, which was an increase of about 9% and 10% respectively from January. Compared with the normal annual growth rate, at least 4% of this sudden increase from June to August is due to the “overdraft” demand formed by the expected price adjustment. It is worth noting that these 'overdraft' requirements have not been truly burned, but have turned into large and small stocks of various companies.

"The above demand is largely triggered by the expected price adjustment after the Olympics." Zhong Jian, deputy general manager and chief analyst of Dongfang Oil & Gas Network, told this reporter that in the past few months, due to the sharp rise in international oil prices, all finished products Oil-related companies, whether they are selling oil or oil, are extremely strong about the expectations of price adjustments. Almost all refined oil operators and users will adjust the price of oil after the Olympics to be adjusted into the refined oil product of the company. The tone of the sales activity.

However, what has caused many practitioners to be surprised is that international oil prices began to decline at an accelerated rate since August. Last weekend, oil prices in New York and London closed below $70 a barrel, with the New York oil market falling to $68.57, the lowest level since July 27 last year. Compared with the historic record of US$147.27 per barrel set on July 11 this year, the drop in oil prices in the New York market has exceeded 53%.

“When the international oil prices fell and the price adjustment expectations collapsed, the resources that had hoarded in the previous months began to recuperate.” According to Zhong Jian, the amount of "overdraft" gasoline and diesel resources hoarded in various enterprises is about the same amount. There are 600,000 tons and 1.2 million tons. He predicted that this part of the resources will take more than two months to gradually "pick up," so that the domestic surplus of the refined oil market may not return to normal until at least November.

According to Wu Jiandong, an energy strategy expert, the unclear expectations in the process of refined oil consumption in China are the reasons that some oil and gas consumers, especially production-oriented companies, need to stock up or store necessary oil products to maintain production. As a result, some people in the domestic refined oil market will over-stock energy.

"The need for over-reserve energy by such production companies has created a possibility that they may obtain large quantities of refined oil reserves directly through abnormal channels. At the same time, arbitrage impulses may occur at any time due to unclear expectations," said Wu Jiandong.

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