The 2008 international crude oil price seems to be riding a roller coaster. The NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) oil price soared from the lowest of 86 US dollars/barrel at the beginning of the year to 147 US$/barrel in mid-July in just half a year, a rise of 71%; it then plunged under the influence of the global economic crisis. After more than four months, NYMEX oil prices fell below US$50/bbl, a drop of nearly 80%.

“This resulted in the upstream oil production, downstream oil refining and petrochemical industries in the second half of 2008 have made substantial provisions for falling inventory prices, petrochemical sector lamented.” He Wei, an analyst at Bank of China International, said that this year the petrochemical sector needs to face The main problem is the demand shock. Last year's high-speed expansion of production capacity will be released gradually this year, which may bring excess capacity in the industry.

Crude oil prices will remain relatively low

Some organizations proposed this view: Sinopec in the first half of the year and PetroChina in the second half of the year. Judging from the trend of the secondary market, as of April 23, Sinopec has rebounded by 37.89% since the beginning of the year, while CNPC's share price has only rebounded by 13.96%.

"This is mainly due to a judgment on the direction of crude oil prices." He Wei said.

According to He Wei’s projection, when the international oil price is below US$45/barrel, it is ranked by the gross profit per share index. Sinopec Corp.> PetroChina> CNOOC; this is mainly due to the weak oil price operation. Due to the special structure of the large-scale upstream and middle-downstream businesses of Sinopec, its ability to resist oil price falls will be better than CNPC and CNOOC.

Bohai Securities analyst Zhang Yanming believes that the main factors (liquidity factor) to promote oil prices will gradually decline, but still abundant, crude oil prices began to find a new direction in the vicinity of 50 US dollars / barrel, if the economic data appear to be positive Support, crude oil prices will break up.

However, this premise is based on the improvement of the economic situation and the effective recovery of crude oil consumption.

“I think the demand for crude oil in 2009 will remain relatively weak, and crude oil prices will continue to operate at a relatively low level. The so-called relatively low price means that it is below US$70/barrel,” said He Wei.

At the same time, in the case of low demand, the restriction of production seems to have become a measure that the international oil giant may take. Recently, the director-general of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) proposed to reduce the 4 million barrels of oil supply from the international market every day to further stabilize international oil prices.

However, He Wei believes that for a long time, with the high crude oil prices in previous years, countries have launched emergency and advanced infrastructure construction and livelihood projects, and a large number of construction projects and state financial expenditures are based on US$80/barrel. Even higher oil prices make the budget. When oil prices fell sharply, the revenue of crude oil exporting countries has already fallen sharply, and they have to reduce production insured through concerted actions. Their execution has been greatly reduced.

While oil prices are sluggish, the refining industry is favored by many market players.

On December 18, 2008, the State Council issued the "Circular on the Implementation of Refined Oil Price (the Cracking of the Oil Price Difficulty in Cracking Cottages) and the Reform of Taxes and Fees". At the same time, the Development and Reform Commission decided to reduce the price of refined oil from 0:00 on December 19, 2008. . Individual management believes that it is a landmark event for the refined oil pricing mechanism that pursues the market-oriented goal re-implemented by the decision-makers.

"Overall, this year's oil refining industry will be relatively stable." He Wei said.

Downstream chemical industry excess capacity

The prospects for the downstream petrochemical industry are still controversial. Some people look at it and others are bearish.

Judging from the information available to reporters, among the A-share listed companies, the pre-revenue for the first quarter of 2009 in the downstream sector of the petrochemical sector still accounts for the overwhelming majority, and the reason for its pre-loss is no longer due to the 2008 annual report. The significant provision for inventory declines was mainly due to demand issues.

For example, Shanxi 3D announced in its April 2009 semi-annual performance forecast that the company expects to lose about 85 million yuan in the first half of 2009. The main reason is: In the half of 2009, due to the global financial crisis, market demand has not yet fundamentally improved. The sales price of the company's products has dropped significantly compared with the same period of last year, resulting in a loss for the company in the half year.

In the same way, Shenyang Chemical also stated in the announcement of its loss forecast for the first quarter of 2009 on April 7, the company will lose about 30 million yuan in the first quarter of 2009. The reason is: In the first quarter of 2009, due to the impact of the international financial crisis, the company’s product demand has shrunk significantly. The sales prices of chlor-alkali products and petrochemical products have dropped significantly compared to the same period of last year, resulting in a loss in the first quarter.

Similar companies abound.

“Because the chemical industry downstream of the petrochemical sector is facing the dilemma of low demand, on the other hand, the supply is expanding, and the combined strength of the two will lead to excess capacity,” said He Wei.

Take the ethylene industry as an example. According to the information collected by BOCI International, a large number of new ethylene construction and expansion projects in China, including Fujian Refining, Guangzhou Petrochemical, Tianjin Refining, Zhenhai Refining, Wuhan Petrochemical, Fushun Petrochemical, Dushanzi Petrochemical, Sichuan Ethylene, Daqing Petrochemical, etc., will follow. It was completed and put into production in 2009-2010, totaling 7.8 million tons.

In 2007, Sinopec and PetroChina respectively produced 2.58 million tons of ethylene and 6.54 million tons of ethylene, and the total ethylene output in the country was only 10.5 million tons. At the same time, according to relevant information, there will be 14 million tons of ethylene capacity built in the Middle East in the next two years.

"China and the world's ethylene production capacity may have excess." He Wei believes.

However, Cing Dingkun, an analyst at China Investment, believes that the actual situation in the petrochemical industry was still very poor in January and February this year. However, in March, the price of chemical products rebounded. In March, the output of major products increased, and the operating rate of enterprises increased. The overall gross profit margin of the chemical sector increased. However, whether it can continue to need to look at the macro adjustments, but overall it should not be wrong.