Resource supply reduces effective demand to amplify the methanol market
In the second half of the year, the domestic methanol price once fell rapidly. By August, the average monthly methanol price in East China and South China dropped to 2,180 yuan and 2,390 yuan, respectively, which was 22% and 21% lower than the highest price in the first half of the year. The average price in the remote northeast region has also dropped by 20% over the same period. For a time, the market is shrouded in clouds. Then, with the overall weakness in the chemical market and the decline of some varieties in the second half of the year close to 30%, what is the reason why the methanol market has risen sharply again in recent times and is thriving? The author believes that it was created by two reasons together.
On the one hand, market resources have decreased. The first is the change in the supply situation in the international market. Due to the unstable operation of large-scale methanol plants in the Middle East, and several sets of methanol plants in Europe, the United States, and New Zealand, due to rising natural gas prices, the cost pressures rose due to the closure in September and October, so the global supply of methanol has become tense again. The increase in European and American market prices has attracted parts of the Middle East and has driven the rise in Asian methanol prices. The Chinese main port CIF price has gradually increased from the average price of 206 US dollars in August to 250 US dollars in November, an increase of about 21%. As imported methanol accounts for about 20% of China's market, the overheating of the external disk has a considerable impact on the domestic market. The second is the reduction in domestic supply. In the second half of the year, the amount of imported methanol slowly declined. The average import volume from July to October was slightly lower than the average monthly import volume during the year. In October, it was reduced by 15%; the domestic methanol plant was underemployed, and domestic methanol in three months of July, August and September was reduced. Monthly production is below the monthly average of the whole year. It did not return to above-average monthly volume until October. In addition, due to the recent shortage of natural gas supply in the northeast and southwest regions, the tight spot supply in the regional market drove the price to rise sharply. The start-up of new domestic installations was also not satisfactory and did not provide effective support for market supply as scheduled.
On the other hand, there is an amplification of downstream effective demand. First, the production of major downstream products entered the peak season and the demand for methanol increased. After entering the autumn, textiles, adhesives, and the formaldehyde industry have entered the production season, and in particular, the utilization rate of formaldehyde, which accounts for nearly 70% of the methanol consumption, has increased, which has greatly promoted the increase in demand. The second is the start of multiple sets of new acetic acid plants. The consumption of methanol has increased significantly. After the domestic acetic acid plant was overhauled in July and August, it gradually entered production climax. After the restart of Jiangsu Thorpe in July, the load gradually increased, monthly production increased by about 10,000 tons, and a new 150,000-tonne acetylene plant was put into trial operation in July. It is currently at full capacity. In August, Shandong Yantai Guotai 200,000 Tons of acetic acid units were put into trial production. In October, a new plant of 70,000 tons of acetic acid from Sanyang, Shijiazhuang was put into production. It is roughly estimated that the monthly domestic consumption of new acetic acid production should exceed 20,000 tons. The third is the increase in demand in emerging areas, such as the use of methanol gasoline. Since methanol is recognized as having good combustibility and cleanliness, methanol-blended gasoline has been used in some areas. Since China has not officially licensed methanol blending, the exact statistics are currently lacking. However, we can see some clues in the 2004 data. Last year, the official statistics of China's methanol production was 4.41 million tons, and the statistics of the Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association was 5.4 million tons. Regardless of which data was more correct, plus net imports of 1.33 million tons, in short, the domestic apparent consumption was 574 last year. 10,000 to 6.7 million tons. However, after accounting, the main downstream product consumption of methanol in 2004 was only 4.5 million tons. Therefore, relevant experts generally believe that at least 1.5 million to 2 million tons of methanol are blended into gasoline. From January to July of this year, the state raised the price of gasoline and diesel five times. Compared to the price of more than 5,000 yuan of gasoline, more than 2,000 yuan of methanol burned into gasoline showed more huge and realistic economic benefits. Therefore, the amount of methanol blended must be promoted. The further increase.
At present, the price of methanol in Europe and the United States continues to rise, and the strong Asian market has not yet been able to change its prices, which constitutes a strong support for domestic methanol prices. Supply, domestic methanol due to some of the natural gas as a raw material of methanol devices such as Shaanxi Yulin, Inner Mongolia Suger, Daqing Oilfield, Chongqing Sichuan Wei, etc. by the constraints of insufficient supply, since November operating rate gradually reduced to 70% ~ 80 %, the output is significantly reduced; and the new installation runs inconsistently, with little impact on the market supply. Therefore, under the current demand situation, the market supply will continue to remain tense. However, after continuous and significant increases, the downstream market has become increasingly vulnerable due to increased cost pressures. At present, the price of acetic acid in the downstream market has fallen. Although the price of formaldehyde is high, the profit of the production plant is very low and the operating rate is facing a decline. The recent trend of methanol in North China is due to the reduction of downstream formaldehyde demand, which has driven down the price. The slightest dissonant tone that appears in a rising tone may give us some hints.
Therefore, although the current tight supply of methanol inside and outside the market contributes to the continued strong methanol trend at the end of the year, the positive correlation between market demand and price will exert effective control over the rising price of methanol.