Outlook 2006: Global chemicals will grow moderately Asia will continue to be the main driving force
Asia is still a hot spot for investment The Asia-Pacific region, especially China's petrochemical market, is in a period of strong growth, and the demand for chemical products is showing rapid growth. With a large population, abundant raw materials, and rapid economic development, the region has huge potential in the chemical consumer market and remains a hot spot for investment by transnational chemical companies. Several large-scale petrochemical projects, such as Shanghai Secco Ethylene and Nanjing Yangba Projects jointly invested by BP and Sinopec, and Shell/Cnooc Petroleum and Chemicals projects with an investment of US$4.3 billion have all been completed and put into production in the near future.
The Japanese economy began to recover after more than 10 years of decline. In particular, in the fiscal year of 2004, the Japanese chemical industry created a rare and brilliant achievement in history, and the company's earnings generally reached 3.3 times that of the previous year. It is expected that the Japanese economy will continue to grow in the next two years, but the growth rate will be slower than in 2004. In order to enhance its competitiveness, the Japanese chemical industry is accelerating its structural reforms and integrating its petrochemical and refining industries.
South Korea's chemical industry accounts for 10.7% of industrial output, and accounts for 9.4% of national exports. This year's development momentum is promising. South Korea is the world’s seventh largest chemical supplier. In 2004, Korea’s chemical industry’s international trade surplus reached US$3.3 billion. South Korea is also a major supplier of PTA, PP, HDPE and ABS in Asia, but Korea needs to import EG from other countries. And AN, two important chemical raw materials.
The chemical industry in Singapore is characterized by the integrated development of the oil, gas and chemical industries, which has attracted large oil companies from all over the world to invest. ExxonMobil plans to build a second factory in Singapore and Shell has also approved a $1 billion investment in Singapore to build new projects. In order to promote the progress of integrated industries, the Singapore government has started several infrastructure projects. The entire chemical industry is booming. The growth rate from 2001 to 2004 was as high as 18.3% per year. This trend will continue this year.
Due to its huge population base, India will continue to be the main driving force for the growth of the chemical industry. The strong growth in the demand for petrochemical products and plastics in the Indian domestic market and the competitive advantage in low labor costs are making it an exporter of consumer goods and boosting the development of the Indian petrochemical industry. In 2005, the growth rate of India's chemical industry is expected to be as high as 10%, making it one of the fastest growing regions in the global chemical industry. According to the ACC forecast, the growth rate of India's chemical industry will reach 7.7% annually during the next 10 years.
US chemical industry will rebound strongly ACC report said that in 2005 the United States chemical production slightly increased by 0.5% in 2004, the growth rate of 3.1%; basic chemicals were the most affected, in 2005 decreased by 4.7 percentage points, but The specialty chemicals and pharmaceutical industries still maintain rapid growth. According to the ACC, production of chemicals in the United States in 2005 will fall by 0.7% from the previous year if it does not include the pharmaceutical sector. In 2006, it is expected that the U.S. basic chemicals industry will rebound strongly as the U.S. manufacturing industry recovers.
The ACC predicts that the average growth rate of chemical industry in the United States this year will reach 2.7%, of which the maximum growth rate of plastic resin is 4.9%; the growth rate of bulk petrochemical products and organic chemicals is the next highest; followed by synthetic rubber; and inorganic The growth rate in the chemicals and man-made fibers sector is much lower; the growth rate in other chemical sectors is relatively modest; as for the fertilizer industry, the negative impact of high-priced natural gas is still difficult to avoid. The ACC also predicts that in 2007, the growth rate of the chemical industry in the United States will reach 2.9%.
European chemical industry will grow moderately. The European Chemical Industry Commission’s outlook report stated that the EU chemical industry will grow moderately in 2006. Chemical production (excluding pharmaceuticals) grew at a rate of 1.6% last year, compared to a 2.6% increase in 2004. It is expected that this year's growth rate will reach 2.3%; EU's pharmaceutical industry growth rate in 2005 will be 3.0%, and this year it will reach 3.5%. Due to the slowdown in the growth of demand for chemicals within the EU and weak exports, the growth rate of the chemical industry in the EU fell last year. As the global economic situation improves, consumer confidence increases, and export opportunities increase, the EU’s chemical industry is expected to gradually pick up and increase this year.
At its annual press conference, the German Chemical Industry Association (VCI) stated that the growth rate of the chemical industry in 2005 could reach 6%, but this year will slow down. The new president of VCI, Bayer president Warner Wenning, said that the chemical industry has been supported by strong demand from manufacturing. Chemical manufacturers have reason to believe that the strong development of the industry will continue at least until the first half of this year. It is expected that the output and sales of German chemical industry will increase by 2.5% and 3.5% respectively this year.