On September 11, Australia’s “Sydney Morning Herald” published an article titled “The Chinese economy is not as depressed as some people think (by Stephen Green). The article analyzes China’s bulldozer sales, and the Chinese economy will reach a rare The best condition is neither cold nor overheating. The following is the content of the report:

To understand the current status of China's economy, take a look at bulldozers. They are tractors with large shovels on the front to shovel earth or coal. These machines are used to build roads, railways or shovel coal out of shallow mines.

As we all know, China is an economy that is highly dependent on investment. Therefore, sales of bulldozers are an extremely important indicator: Companies will purchase bulldozers in the next two years before purchasing them. In July, the sales of bulldozers reached 15,823, an increase of 50% year-on-year.

If an economy is on the verge of collapse, this figure will not appear at all. On the contrary, this is only one of many signs that China's GDP is steadily rising and inflationary pressures have eased.

This year, Chinese officials have been trying to cool their overly excited domestic economy. From March to June, it seems that the government is approaching this goal step by step. New infrastructure projects approved by officials have decreased. Bank lending was capped and all loans issued last year were repaid.

In April, the State Council began to crack down on speculation in the real estate industry. Steel prices fell, and China-related bonds were sold off. We have even seen some hedge funds dumping large amounts of yuan in non-deliverable forward transactions. The Chinese economy is in a downturn.

Now, there are signs that the Chinese economy has gone out of recession caused by policies for four months. In addition to bulldozer sales, according to Standard Chartered Bank estimates, manufacturing purchasing managers in August cited 53.4%, and the new order index was 56.4%, which means that the economy will continue to grow.

Other signs that the Chinese economy has returned to life include the rise in sales of homes and cars. The transaction volume of housing in 11 small and medium-sized cities has almost returned to the level before the property market was introduced in April. At the same time, the economic recovery in the United States may have come to an abrupt end. Standard Chartered Bank predicts that the growth rate of the US economy in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year will be only 0.5%. China will strive to increase its exports to North America by more than 3%. However, due to the good momentum of Chinese exports, there is no reason to worry too much about this. Some people still expect that China will accelerate inflation. However, the prices of manufacturing products are controllable, and while food prices are soaring, meat prices and oil prices remain stable.

As long as inflation is controllable, the Chinese government may loosen its policy before the end of this year and release more infrastructure projects. It may allow banks greater freedom in lending.

In the first half of this year, China’s fiscal revenue was abundant and urgently needed.

In short, the fourth quarter of 2008 is likely to be repeated in a small area. At the time, most of the markets were panicked when the US economy was on the brink of collapse. And the only place in the world that has turned to economic stimulus and maintained its vitality is China.

Investors are faced with a question mark: Will the negative effects of the slowing U.S. economic growth deprive them of their love of risk? Given that the Fed has little action - perhaps it will adopt a loose monetary policy, which will push the funds to China.

If this is the case, China's economy will soon reach its best position again - neither too hot nor too cold. This status is not always present, so it should not be wasted.