The Shanghai International Shipping Research Center released the latest report on September 13th. Driven by coal and grain, the freight index of the three major cargoes in the domestic coastal dry bulk cargo transportation market rose across the board, rising for the second consecutive week after falling for 16 consecutive weeks. .

The report disclosed that on September 8, the coastal (bulk cargo) freight index issued by the China Shipping Exchange closed at 1311.41 points, up 12.34% from the previous week. Among them, the coal and grain freight index rose by 17.84% and 11.2% respectively, and the freight index of metal ore rose slightly by 2.45%.

In terms of coal, the coastal coal freight index was sharply adjusted for the first time since April. The freight rates of all major routes increased, and some routes increased by more than 20 percentage points.

At present, the price of thermal coal for Qinhuangdao 5800 calories is 755-765 yuan/ton, the price of thermal coal for 5500 calories is 710-720 yuan/ton, and the price for 5000 kcal thermal coal is 610-620 yuan/ton.

As of September 3, among key power generation groups, Guodian had 21 days of coal deposits and Zhedian had 20 days. As of September 10, Qinhuangdao port inventory was 7.348 million tons, an increase of 155,000 tons compared with the previous month, and September 9th inventory was 7.856 million tons.

The research report pointed out that the sharp increase in the coastal coal freight index in the current period was mainly due to the fact that the tight supply of transport capacity has pushed the index up rather than coal demand. In fact, since September, the major power-consumption industries have reduced power production, resulting in a reduction in power plant coal consumption and affecting coal demand; coupled with the peak summer season, coal demand has experienced a seasonal decline.

The agency anticipates that the enthusiasm of the replenishment library will be improved and the coastal coal freight index will continue to be pulled out.

The report shows that the ore freight index rose only slightly in early September. The freight rates of Beilun-Shanghai, Beilun-Nantong, Qingdao-Zhangjiagang, and Zhoushan-Zhangjiagang increased by 3.49%, 1.03%, 3.33%, and 1.83% from the previous week.

The agency also pointed out that the weak demand led to a decline in the price of imported ore. As of September 3, the iron ore inventories at 19 domestic ports totaled 77.56 million tons, down by 1.86 million tons from the previous week.

Demand from steel mills weakened due to instability in the steel market, and most steel mills have been forced to limit production or stop production due to energy conservation and emission reduction policies. Demand for imported iron ore has shrunk significantly, leading to weaker prices.

As of September 10, 63.5% grade Indian ore CFR price is 149-151 US dollars / ton, Brazilian southern ore CFR price is 153-156 US dollars / ton, 61.5% grade Australian ore CFR price is 144-147 yuan / ton.

The domestic steel mills confirmed the news of the price reduction of iron ore in the fourth quarter by the three major miners, with the offshore FOB price of US$127/ton, equivalent to the CIF price of approximately US$137/ton, and the FOB price of US$135/ton. The CIF price is approximately US$161/tonne; BHP Billiton adopts a consistent and flexible pricing method, and the prices quoted by the steel mills are not the same.

The agency anticipates that the storm of nationwide mandatory power cuts and energy conservation and production cuts will continue to persist, thereby weakening the iron ore demand of steel mills. At the same time, due to the fall in the prices of imported iron ore in the fourth quarter, steel mills may reduce procurement before this, affecting the coastal transportation market, and later in the period the iron ore transportation in the coast will be adjusted back and oscillated.

In terms of grain, the demand for high-quality corn restocking in the southern port has been released, especially the reduction in corn prices to stimulate the demand for supplementary storage. Coupled with the dry bulk transportation of other types of coastal bulk cargo, the transport capacity has been diverted, and it has also led to a rise in grain prices.

Since this month, the government has once again amended the corn auction sales rules. This is the fifth time the State Reserve Bank has revised the trading rules since its release, and policy pressures continue to affect the market. At the same time, imported corn arrived in Hong Kong for unloading in September and the supply was adequate. The port corn price weakened.

As of September 8, the Dalian-Guangzhou route and Yingkou-Shenzhen route rose by 9.90% and 14.29% respectively over the previous week. In the same period, the transaction price in Guangzhou Port was 2070-2090 yuan/ton, down by 20-30 yuan/ton from the previous month; the flat price in Dalian Port was 1990-2010 yuan/ton, down by 10-30 yuan/ton from the previous month.

According to a research report, corn supply can still be guaranteed, and demand from downstream farming industries continues to pick up. It is expected that the coastal grain transportation market in the later period may still be slightly stronger; however, taking into account the large number of imported corn arriving in September, it is bound to have a negative impact.