Domestic demand spurs obvious adjustments to the purchase tax halving policy
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Since last year, the "financial crisis" from Wall Street in the United States has swept the world, and the negative trend has been affecting so far. Although China has not suffered a severe financial crisis, the impact of the global financial crisis and economic recession on China is also severe. In the context of global economic integration and heightened international division of labor and China’s long-term use of external demand to support the economic development model, the US financial crisis has played a major role in the Chinese market in the form of indirect effects and chain reactions. There was a lot of resistance in auto exports, followed by the unprecedented impact of China's auto parts exports.
As the global financial crisis deepens and spreads, the central government has wisely decided to expand and stimulate domestic demand in the face of the impact of energy prices, resource-based products, and export disruption. In particular, the world’s first product, the automobile, has introduced a series of unprecedented hits. The policy of encouraging consumption is firstly to stimulate domestic demand and secondly to revitalize the automobile industry. For instance, a series of adjustment policies such as the "fuel tax reform" policy introduced at the end of last year, halving the purchase tax for passenger cars under 1.6 liters, and "cars going to the countryside" have greatly stimulated the demand in the domestic market and have also stimulated the demand for private cars. Another wave of new wave of consumption has achieved the expected good growth effect. This year, the national automobile market will exceed 12.5 million vehicles, which is the best product of the central government's series of effective combination boxing policies.
As China's economy has taken the lead in getting out of the shadow of the crisis in the world financial market, it has shown a rapid recovery. In 2010, the economic environment will improve in a better direction. At the same time, in order to adapt to China's macroeconomic development, accelerate the structural adjustment of the auto industry and stimulate the auto consumption market even more, the purchase tax policy is also facing the adjustment of the complex situation. The adjustment policy to stimulate consumption remains a major task, but it must be carried out again. Only by adjusting to meet the demands of the current world and China’s economic development trends can we strengthen the Chinese auto industry itself and realize the centuries-old dream of the Chinese being “a nation on wheelsâ€.
First, the effect of the adjustment of purchase tax
1. Passenger cars significantly promote the overall market
In 2009, the growth of the market was gratifying. The unparalleled performance of over 12 million cars produced and sold exceeded the United States once again and it is a foregone conclusion. From January to July 2009, the growth rate of China's auto market was 23.4%, which has exceeded the growth rate in 2007. It is estimated that the high growth rate of 34% reached in the end of 2009 may be achieved.
The contrast between the trend of commercial vehicles and passenger vehicles in 2009 is basically consistent with the trend of the contrast in 2005. Passenger car is the leading indicator for the recovery of the auto industry. The high growth of passenger cars this year is a foregone conclusion. Narrower passenger cars have grown at around 50% annually, while microbuses have grown at more than 80%. Commercial vehicles have a large degree of economic correlation and a high proportion of exports. In 2009, the growth pressure was slightly higher, but it was in a relatively fast recovery. As a result, the growth rate of the entire automobile sales in 2009 has become more and more optimistic. It is estimated to be 12.5 million units, an increase of over 33%.
2. Comparison of the structure of car models over the years
Chart 1 Trends in Sedan Year by Year for Each Level
This map should be divided into two parts: the trend in 01-08 and the change in 2009.
The overall market trend from the year of 01 to 2008 was a high level of pressure, and the A-class or above had a strong performance. Among them, the 02-05 year is the general stage. At this time, the performance of A0+A00 is generally stable and it maintains a share of 37%-38%. The A-Class has become an entry-level, high-growth model, with its share rising from 31% to 37.5%, gradually surpassing the A0+A00 share.
06-08 is an upgrade phase. Many policies of various levels of government departments have guided consumption upgrades, restrained ordinary consumers from buying cars, and brought about a serious contraction of small displacements. This trend can be reflected in the trend of AO+A00 models from 05-08. The share of A0+A00 in 2005 was 38.1%, 36.2% in 2006, and 32.4% in 2007. It continued to break through from January to July in 2008, but it reversed after September.
In 2009, the market share of Class A vehicles increased significantly. Due to the 1.6-litre purchase tax adjustment, the 2009 Class A market rose from 42.5% in January-July 2008 to 47.4% in January-July 2009, and in July it further broke through to a high of 48.4%.
In spite of preferential policies, the economy car (A0+A00) has still experienced a slight decline in market share since 2006, and the share of small cars in the A0 class fell in 2009. If the amount is calculated, the A0 car below 1.5 liters will decline even more. Powerful. It can be seen that the trend of upsizing of small car users is obvious. The share of A0+A00 in 2009 was 30.5% (30.7% in the same period in 2008), and it has dropped back to 27.6% in July (27.5% in the same period of 2008). In 2009, it was generally lower than 07. The level of 0.2%. The slowdown in the share of economic cars is mainly due to the fact that 1.6L high-end small cars and mid-to-low-end compact cars have strengthened in competition.
A00-level entry-level consumer groups in the economy car have increased in stages, and the market share of A00-level mini-car has continued to increase after September 2008. It was only 7.4% in January-July 2009, but it has not yet recovered to the level of 2006. In July 2009, there has been a clear downward trend.
Under the high-growth diversion of the 1.6-liter sedan and microbus market, the sedan's share of the sedan is under greater pressure. The smaller A0-class cars under 1.5 liters also show weak growth. The small car market fell all the way from 29.5% in 2002 to 22.5% in 2008. Although it seems that in January-July 2009 it was higher than the full-year level in 2008, it was 23.1% in January-July 2009, still lower than the 23.5% in the same period in 2008, about 0.4%, and the downward trend still exists in the future.
3. Less than 6.1 liters of passenger cars minus 5% of purchase tax policy
There were two hot spots in the sedan market in 2009, namely the 1.5-liter model and the 1.6-liter A-class model, of which the 1.6-liter A-class model was particularly prominent. At the same time, several market segments with serious downturns are 1.8 liters, 2.3-2.5 liters, and large-displacement cars, which cover almost all medium to large displacement markets. The decline in the saloon market of more than 2.3 liters is basically irrelevant to the purchase tax, which is positively related to the economic trend.
In January-July 2009, the market of small-displacement cars with a capacity of less than 1.5 liters slowed, but in July, market share continued to fall.
The 1.6-liter or less policy on the purchase tax reduction of 5% has a huge contribution to the rapid growth of passenger cars in 2009. Especially for the development of independent brands have a huge supporting role. Due to the rapid decline in overseas sales, the growth of small-displacement vehicles has been severely impacted. This policy adjustment has enabled domestic demand to effectively erupt, which not only compensates for the loss of overseas sales, but also provides a major increase in the automotive market.
With the recovery of China's economy, the market for large and medium-displacement cars and SUVs has picked up recently, and sales volume of narrow-minded passenger cars with a displacement of 1.8 liters or more has resumed positive growth.
Second, the discussion of the direction of adjustment of purchase tax
1. Continue to extend and adjust the preferential policies for vehicle purchase tax
The State Council recently released the 2009 energy saving and emission reduction work arrangement, which clearly stated that it will “research and adjust the vehicle purchase tax policyâ€, which means that the policy may not simply expire, but enrich its adjustment methods to play a more comprehensive role. At the news briefing of the State Council Information Office on August 13, Minister of Industry and Information Li Yizhong stated that the policies of “automobile going to the countryside†and automobile “renewal†will continue to be implemented and improved. In March of this year, the relevant national ministries issued by the relevant ministries and commissions halved the purchase tax of 1.6L and will expire on December 31st. The central government is brewing a new vehicle purchase tax policy in 2010.
2. Direction one: Increase the intensity of encouraging the development of small-displacement cars
Below 1.0L car purchase tax further reduced or even cancelled
According to media reports, the relevant person in charge of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said that depending on the market situation, the purchase tax will be further reduced; the purchase tax for the 1.0L and below models is expected to be further reduced or even cancelled; the support for production and sales of new energy vehicles will increase, and the new policy is expected to be introduced soon.
3. Direction II: Expanding the Popularization of Civil Vehicles
Three sets of vehicle purchase tax options - State Administration of Taxation
According to media reports, relevant departments of the State Administration of Taxation have formed three sets of plans for the adjustment of automobile purchase tax on the basis of previous investigations. The general content of the three sets of proposals is to point to a broader range of tax relief.
One of the plans is to further expand the range of purchase tax deductions on the basis of halving the purchase tax for the following 1.6-emission vehicles, and to implement a half-purchase policy on purchase tax for vehicles under 2.0 displacement.
Option two, the purchase tax reduction efforts will be greater, in addition to the purchase tax halved to 2.0 displacement below all models, the 1.4 displacement below the model will also be exempt from purchase tax.
In the third plan, after the original purchase tax exemption policy expires, the purchase tax for the current 1.6 displacement vehicles shall be postponed to implement the half-reduction policy.
4, a comprehensive analysis of the current state
The purchase tax preferential policy must be implemented as a means to cope with the financial crisis. It is indispensable as a measure to guide the development direction of automobile consumption, but it can only be a temporary policy in the long run.
As the world financial crisis is still spreading in some parts of the world and disappearing in some regions, the huge fiscal deficit of the United States, coupled with the economic downturn in Europe is still not in the end, the world economy will not rebound quickly next year. Therefore, the task of maintaining domestic economic growth momentum is still very arduous. China's auto industry's concessionary exemption policies should also maintain appropriate growth, and it will be related to the national economy as a pillar industry - whether China's auto industry can further develop and grow. With regard to further reducing the purchase tax, we analyze the various information currently disclosed by the media as follows:
4.1 On further reducing the purchase tax issue.
As the country’s deficit of 950 billion yuan this year may break through at the same time, car sales may exceed 12.5 million units, an increase of more than 33%, so it is unlikely that the country will further reduce taxes in the auto industry. In the next step, national finance should consider the issue of appropriate income increase. Therefore, there is basically no possibility that tax incentives will expand.
4.2 The issue of supporting the production and sales of new energy vehicles and the support of low emission and low fuel consumption vehicles.
Since the new energy vehicles belong to the country's special preferential policies, their preferential prices are very high. The reduction of purchase tax incentives is much smaller than the subsidy policy. And new energy vehicles are currently only pilot periods. In 2010, it was mainly a pilot project. The number of cars sold to individuals will be small.
The incentive for low-emission and low-fuel vehicles must have a standard that must surpass the emission and limit standards required in 2010. That is, emissions must reach the national V and the fuel consumption limit must reach three stages, and neither of these standards is currently in place. However, no enterprise has announced that their products have reached the national V and the fuel consumption limit has reached the 3-stage standard. Therefore, the reason why the purchase tax increases energy-saving and emission-reduction is not enough.
4.3 The relationship between vehicles and roads in the world is based on vehicle maintenance
At present, China's car ownership has grown rapidly, and road construction has lagged behind, which has led to serious traffic jams in many areas. One of the reasons for the lag in road construction is that China’s auto revenue is relatively low, resulting in a lack of road-building funds. Most countries in the world are car-raising, and China is no exception. It must be handled properly. Otherwise, the social problems of popularizing private cars will be very serious. Although central and local governments spend huge amounts of financial funds and loans to build roads, the problem of traffic jams in China has become more and more serious in recent years.
The purchase tax revenue of the country is one of the important sources of funding for national road construction. Therefore, the CLUCC’s report in November 2008 called for a reduction of the purchase tax. At that time, only a one-year time limit was proposed. This was an interim measure proposed by the country at the time when the economy was likely to continue to decline.
With the improvement of the state of economic growth, the purchase tax concessions will gradually decrease or be gradually phased out. In 2010, the rapid increase in the number of cars will cause serious shortage of road construction funds. Therefore, on the purchase tax, the CLUCC still hopes that the current policy can continue for another year. An interim measure can be implemented for two years and is also the longest in the world.
Third, the growth of the passenger car industry in 2010 has hidden concerns
1. Market negative growth risk in 2010
In 2009, the automotive market recovered rapidly. In the first half of this year, the growth rate of the domestic passenger vehicle market, if taking into account the decline in exports and the factor of digesting inventory, the real growth has reached more than 40%. This is the release of new holdings in 2008 and new The rapid release of potential groups stimulated by policies.
The growth of narrow passenger vehicles in 2010 was based on a high base. High growth in 2009 also overdrawn future consumer demand. At the same time, it also faced the risk of reduced buying enthusiasm brought about by pressure from the consumer environment. The following 1.6-liter purchase tax for passenger cars will be reduced by half, plus the elimination of road maintenance fees, will contribute more than 60% to the growth of the automobile market. If this policy is abolished, as the current international economic contraction has not reached the bottom, the national economy has increased. The rapid recovery is still not stable, and it is very likely that the negative growth of the auto market in 2010 will delay the recovery of the national economy. In addition, the minivan market is also facing the risk of reducing the potential consumer groups after migrant workers return home and return to the city. This, in addition to the incremental release of the initial cancellation of the road maintenance fee, is accompanied by the cancellation of the purchase tax reduction policy. It will also lead to a significant negative growth in the minivan market in 2010.
2. Small-displacement market risk analysis
Mini cars are about to enter the winter period. Without policy encouragement will be very dangerous. Mini-cars are a unique high-volume market in China. Although Japan's micro-vehicle ownership and sales volume ratio is much higher than China's, this is the result of Japan's systemic consumption policy during the purchase and retention phase. However, China does not have such a policy basis. The higher sales of minicars are mainly due to low prices. The self-owned brands achieve higher sales at ultra-low prices, while A0-class cars achieve profits at a relatively low price of around 50,000 yuan. Sales balance. The price of the joint venture brand is seriously high.
The high growth of mini-vehicles in 2009 was mainly due to the car consumption tax policy in September 2008 that drastically reduced the mini-vehicle tax rate and the large number of new products of its own brands. It is difficult to continue in the state. The mini-vehicles in 2010 will inevitably enter the low-growth period. The consumption tax adjustment policy in September 2008 and the special environment introduced by the new products such as F0, M1, Panda, and Genie in 2008 will be difficult to duplicate. Therefore, in 2010, The mini-car market may experience negative growth. After all, the price advantage is difficult to sustain. Although the number of mini-cars has increased significantly, it has fallen in market share. This is inseparable from the Chinese people's ostentation and love, and it is also related to the small degree of policy orientation.
3. The foundation for the recovery of self-owned brand share is not stable
From January to July 2009, the share of self-owned brands rebounded, and the main basis for their recovery was structural changes, while the advantages of self-owned brands in many market segments did not increase significantly.
On the basis of the overall increase in the share of independent brands in 2009, the monthly trend has gradually declined. The main effect is structural changes, while the share of small cars has declined rapidly. The joint-venture brand of mini-vehicles and small-sized cars continues to strengthen. With the strong performance of joint-venture brands in compact cars, the impact on small-sized cars is also increasing. With the gradual strengthening of the mid-to-high end market in the near future, the decline in market share of self-owned brands continues.
Fourth, adjust the proposal
Main point: Maintain or gradually narrow the discount rate. The purchase tax adjustment policy has made a huge contribution to the growth of passenger vehicles in 2009, and most of the manufacturers have also adjusted their positions. The 1.5-1.6-liter model has become the main force for growth. The policy of purchasing 5% of the purchase tax for passenger cars with a price of 1.6 liters or less in 2010 must not be categorically cancelled. Otherwise, the passenger car market in 2010 will see negative growth. However, the preferential taxation policy for purchases needs to be properly adjusted. At the same time, it is also necessary to consider the gradual withdrawal of this temporary policy.
The overall direction of adjustment is to consider the tax withdrawal method and speed. While ensuring a steady growth of the auto market, a smooth exit is the best choice. There are two directions to choose from: One is to gradually reduce the discounted standard, that is, from 1.6 liters to the following 1.5 liters discount. The other is to reduce the rate of reduction, from 5% to 4%, so the scope of the impact is small, and there are still policy incentives.
1. Linkage between purchase tax policy and industrial policy
The auto consumption tax is the current half-liter, forming different tax rates such as below 1 liter, 1-1.5 liter, 1.5-2 liter, and 2-2.5 liter. The auto industry policy requires that the share of models under 1 litre and passenger cars below 1.5 liters reach the two limit points of 15% and 40% in 2011. If the share of minibuses is already realized in early 2009, and it is likely to be maintained in 2011, there is a greater risk of not reaching the standard for the share of minibuses, because of the high growth of microbuses, 40% of 1.5 litres. The target has now been achieved, but there may still be landslide hazards in the future. Therefore, it is necessary to further accelerate the development of the narrow passenger car market of 1 liter and 1.5 liter to strengthen support.
If the purchase tax policy is also adjusted to the 1.5-liter concession ceiling, the joint force of the two policies will converge at the 1.5-liter position, which will bring about greater policy adjustments. If the incentive limit is adjusted to 1.5 liters, it may help to ensure the realization of the automobile industry's adjustment and revitalization plan.
2. Impact analysis from the 1.6-liter discount to 1.5-liter drop
If we move from 1.6 to 1.5 liters, the main targets of the main concessions will change, and the preferential tax losses will also be greatly reduced. Lifting from 1.6 to 1.5 liters, for example, will cause about 37% of sedan products not to receive subsidies. That is, nearly 3 million vehicles will be excluded from the subsidy range in 2010. This is a huge change, resulting in fiscal subsidies throughout the year. The reduction in the amount of nearly 10 billion yuan, and resulting in a huge change in the structure of the passenger car market, will also bring about tremendous changes in the competitive landscape of enterprises, requiring extremely careful handling.
In 2009, the outstanding sales performance of the manufacturers was the medium and low-grade models with 8-10 million yuan. The 1.6-liter Korean main models all performed outstandingly, while the 1.8-liter models of early-stage main models sold poorly. This was in line with the edge effect of purchase tax incentives. closely related. The effect of the policy is mainly at the edge of the policy, and other models benefit less. Therefore, the policy of reducing the emission discount limit of purchase tax has a huge impact. If the increase from 1.6 to 1.5 liters can make the self-owned brand profitable, the fluctuation of short-term sales is difficult for manufacturers and markets to respond quickly, and it may cause fierce market competition. fluctuation. Adjustments to the limits of the purchase tax preferences must be carefully adjusted.
3. Analysis of the impact of tax rate reduction
The fiscal and tax relief policies that deal with the economic crisis will inevitably face a state of gradual withdrawal. Lowering the tax rate is an effective way to achieve a smooth transition. Lowering the tax rate needs to take into account the issue of car subsidy to the countryside for minibuses, and strives to make the subsidy for cars to the countryside not shrink in the near future. This will require the adjustment of the purchase tax rate to operate at 1.3 liters and 1.6 liters. That is, the preferential tax rate of 1.3-1.6 liters is slightly lower, while the tax rate below 1.3 liters remains unchanged.
This 1.3-1.6 liters of the main models to reduce the discount, so that tax losses greatly reduced, while the feeling of concessions still exist. The tax deductions for the following 1.3-liter models will remain unchanged to ensure that the interests of farmers will not be lost. The preferential tax deduction is: 1.3-1.6 liters of the preferential tax rate for main vehicles will fall by 2%, and the tax increase will reach about 2 billion yuan. It can ensure the effectiveness of tax revenue increases, but has little effect on the passenger car market.
4, purchase tax preferential tax rate adjustment proposal
According to the above analysis, if the purchase tax is cancelled, it will not only affect the passenger car market sales, but also affect the car to the countryside and cause negative growth in the auto market next year.
At present, the purchase tax reduction policy is mainly to make the market of passenger cars with a capacity of over 1.8 liters lower, but the market share of micro cars under 1 litre also declines. At the same time, the trend of minibuses' displacement is very obvious. By the end of the year, in the planning for the revitalization of the automobile industry, achieving a goal of 15% of the passenger vehicles below 1 litre will only have two years, and there will be no new policy. This goal will surely drop below 15%, and therefore it must be achieved in 2010. Powerful measures to solve major problems.
Since its own brand reached the highest point in history since January 2009, it has since then declined month-on-month, mainly due to the decline in the automotive market share of 1.3 liters or less. Therefore, we must at least ensure that the tax below 1.5 liters will continue to be reduced by half. This will have a certain effect on the market share of small-displacement cars. It also guarantees that the policy of car-going to the countryside will remain unchanged. We recommend that the 1.3-1.6 litre passenger vehicle purchase tax reduction be reduced, instead of breaking the balance of engine displacement to reduce the discounted models. The preferential policy time is extended by one year.
The above proposal assumes that under the premise that the new automobile consumer credit policy promotes automobile sales, if the new automobile consumer credit policy cannot achieve this goal, the automobile consumption market will make the country, companies and consumers feel great next year. Disappointed.
5, discounts for new energy vehicles
From the recent policy approaches and exit models that stimulate the auto market in various countries, foreign preferential policies are generally short-term. Foreign energy-saving and emission-reduction policies are generally subsidized by the government rather than reduced by certain types of taxes.
The main cost of new energy vehicles is increasing in enterprises, so the taxation policies that effectively subsidize R&D and costs of enterprises are more direct. If the new energy vehicle adopts a certain amount of current subsidy policy based on the energy saving sub-concession, the effect of recharging the production enterprise is more obvious, so that the lowering of the ex-factory price will lay the foundation for the reduction of the purchase tax. Consumers purchase these low-emission new energy vehicles (electric vehicles are zero-displacement) and enjoy a low consumption tax rate, which is better than the purchase tax rate of conventional models of the same level.
Since the preferential policies that have contributed greatly to the growth of the automobile market in 2009 are still in an uncertain state in the future, we feel that there may be greater volatility in the automobile market in 2010. We hope that the relevant government departments will maintain the stability and continuity of the auto purchase tax policy.
The above analysis and recommendations are for reference only when relevant government departments in charge further adjust the policy. We are willing to make further exchanges and discussions with all manufacturers.
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