Stimulate the Bush administration to advance large-scale tax refunds
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"Obviously, our economy is slowing down, but fortunately we saw this sign and took action," said Bush. As the core of the United States’ 168 billion US dollar stimulus package, the tax rebate plan was originally scheduled to be issued in early May of this year. However, President Bush, who had left office for less than a year, suddenly announced early release.
Intended to promptly stimulate consumption According to the plan, most Americans can receive different levels of tax rebates depending on income and taxation: Generally speaking, individuals can receive up to 600 US dollars in tax rebates, couples can receive a tax refund of 1,200 US dollars, families with children, each child Another $300 rebate can be obtained.
All refunds will be distributed in a wholesale manner according to the order of the individual’s social security number. In this case, if you choose to deposit your tax refund directly into your bank account, you will receive tax rebates on the 28th of this month, ending on May 16. If you choose to pay by cheque, the IRS will send cheques in batches in the same order of social security, starting from May 9, and the final batch will be issued on July 11.
Economists have different views on the role of tax rebate policies in stimulating the economy. Joel Slimmrod and Matthew Shapir, professors of economics at the University of Michigan, conducted a study on the effect of a similar tax refund policy in 2001 and found that taxpayers mainly save the tax refund or use it to pay back debt.
According to the Associated Press AOL’s monetary and financial investigation earlier this month, 35% of respondents stated that they plan to pay utility bills, repayments and other expenses this year. This figure was only 27% a year ago.
Other polls in the United States also show that in the special tax rebate of US$107 billion, most Americans plan to spend 25% to 30% immediately and leave about 55% to 60% for repayment.
Professor Slemmurd said on the 28th that because the intention of the tax rebate program is to quickly promote consumption, people's tendency to use this money for storage or debt reduction will weaken this effect.
The US Congressional Budget Office also admitted that the effect of the tax rebate is not certain.
All parties expect different results. The tax refund measures have a long history in the United States. When the prospects for economic growth in the United States are not good, they are considered by the government as a panacea to stimulate the economy.
Research on the history of tax refunds shows that only about 12% to 24% of the tax refunds for 1975 were used for consumption in the current season. In 2001, 20% to 40% of tax refunds were consumed in the season received, and approximately two-thirds were consumed in the first two quarters.
The scale of the tax rebate in 2008 was unprecedented. It is planned to exceed US$170 billion in two years, and the first year will be a tax refund of nearly US$110 billion. In addition, the current tax rebate compared to 2001 is more biased towards lower-income groups because they are more vulnerable to cash flow restrictions and theoretically subsidize their contribution to consumption.
Analysts estimate that 20% to 50% of tax refunds will be consumed within 4 to 6 months, and the effect may appear for the first time in retail sales in May and June of this year. US Secretary of the Treasury Paulson said that the tax rebate is expected to start affecting the economy by the end of June or early July of this year and will help increase 500,000 to 600,000 jobs this year.
Some analysts believe that the U.S. government’s tax rebate this year can boost the economic growth in the current quarter by 2%. Some people think that the impact may not be satisfactory: Bank of America expects that the growth rate stimulated by tax rebates will be below 1%, while Merrill Lynch is even more pessimistic and believes it is less than 0.5%.
Although many economists believe that the U.S. economy has fallen into a recession, U.S. President Bush said last week that he believes this is only a period of slowdown in economic growth, rather than a complete recession. The experts reminded that regardless of the size of the stimulus consumption, the impact will be temporary, up to 6 months. If the basic economic conditions of a country are not improved during the year when the stimulus policy is implemented, it may weaken the effect of the tax rebate. It quickly fell into recession.