Market observation: May steel market may be positive after the suppression

November 07 09:02:29, 2024

Since the Spring Festival, the steel price has been rising along with the rise in ore prices and the expected demand. It has started to fall after hitting a stage high in mid-April. At present, steel prices in Shanghai have dropped by RMB 80/t, and the decline will continue to expand. The steel market that has already entered the stage of weak consolidation will go from where the market will go and it is highly concerned by all parties. A number of research institutions recently predicted that this round of upswing has not actually reached the top, and the steel market may go out of the rally in May.
In May and June, high-cost resources will enter the market one after another. In the second quarter, the three major factors such as tight coal supply, rising coal prices, and tight water supply will directly affect the production of steel companies. These may become factors that will further promote the rise of steel prices. . Although costs will continue to push up, downstream capacity has been questioned by the market.
Lange Steel analysts believe that in several large-scale steel industries, national capital construction investment projects and real estate residential investment can be almost completely accepted. Industries that currently have strong demand in the manufacturing industry, such as automobiles, machinery and equipment, shipbuilding, etc., or can continue downstream transmission, accept partial price increases. However, for the household appliance industry, where the supply of the market exceeds supply, and profits are not high, the direct consumption of household appliances will be much more difficult to digest. At the same time, the ex-factory price of manufacturing products is relatively stable and the contract period is long. It is time-consuming to adapt to the frequent fluctuations in the steel market price.
Taking into consideration various factors, the current price increase of this wave steel may not reach its peak, and it has entered the stage of periodical shock adjustment. If there are no special major negative factors, the steel market may experience tentative pull-ups at the beginning of the month after being adjusted in the early stage in May, and may return to the uptrend in the middle or later months.
Analysts at the Nisshin Shinkansen have similar views. According to the analysis, in the first half of May, the market will be used to digest the benefits and demand for the overdraft during the price increase period. During this period, the macroeconomic policy adjustment and the support of the business mentality will play a very important role. With the adjustment of prices in place and the gradual digestion of inventories, it is expected to resume its upward trend in late May. "The current inventory is mainly before the Spring Festival, and profit margins have already become apparent. Therefore, there is insufficient incentive for steel prices to continue to rise. After the inventory structure is adjusted, that is, higher-cost steel products will enter the market, prices are expected to continue to rise." The main line marketing department told reporters.
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