Plastic products industry first signs of slowing exports

The spread of the US subprime mortgage crisis, the adjustment of the domestic export tax rebate policy, and the chain reaction brought about by the appreciation of the renminbi, have enabled manufacturing executives who often deal with the international market to smell dangerous dangers.

China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released on January 2 CFLP China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 53.0%, down 2.3 percentage points from the previous month. Among the major sub-indices, the export orders index has shown signs of “tightening” for the first time in three years.

The slowdown in the growth rate of new export orders will have very different effects on different industries. Among them, the industries most affected by the "extrovert" are stronger. Of the 20 industries identified in the survey, communications equipment computers and other electronic equipment manufacturing, non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing, chemical materials and chemical manufacturing, chemical fiber manufacturing and rubber and plastic products, textiles, and non-metallic minerals The PMI of the six industries in the product industry is below 50%.

"The decline in the PMI index is mainly influenced by seasonal factors. If the seasonal factors are excluded, the future economic growth will remain stable at a high level from the perspective of PMI." said Zhang Liqun, researcher at the State Council Development Research Center. "The new export order index has dropped significantly and may indicate The further slowdown in export growth may have a certain pull-down effect on economic growth and deserve close attention."

The manufacturing PMI is a comprehensive index. Usually, the PMI index is above 50%, reflecting the overall economic expansion; it is below 50%, reflecting the economic recession.

In this index system with 50% as the “watershed” of expansion and recession, except for the index of finished goods inventories, all the other indices have declined to varying degrees compared with last December, especially the production index and new orders. The index and new export orders index fell most clearly, falling by 3.4, 4.4, and 5.3 percentage points respectively. Among them, the new export order index has dropped to below 50% for the first time since January 2005.

The surveyed purchasing managers' expectation of new export orders reflects their unfavorable prospects for the export of the industry. The US subprime mortgage crisis has brought uncertainties to the global economic growth. The appreciation of the renminbi, and the recent cancellation of some export tax rebates by the country’s products have also affected the export of export products. In the near future, this situation may continue.

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